From West by Northwest.org Voices of the Northwest Sadler's Sense: Enter Westlund for Senator? By Russell Sadler Dec 3, 2006 The last election made Republicans vulnerable who have not been vulnerable before. That is not good news for Senator Gordon Smith, R-Oregon, who is up for reelection in 2008. Elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996 to replace the retiring Mark Hatfield, Smith was reelected in 2002. Smith has kept a low profile and is regarded as a “moderate” Republican. As regular readers know, this column has banned the term “moderate,” because it means so many different things to different people it is no longer a useful label. Smith has wrapped himself tightly in Hatfield’s “maverick” mantle, but a close examination of his voting record reveals Smith is no maverick. He consistently votes the Bush regime party line. Smith is an orthodox Republican. And that is why he suddenly appears vulnerable in 2008. This last election was not a triumph of Democrats over Republicans. This election was a repudiation of what has become the orthodox Republican Party at the federal, state and local levels. It is no longer the Republican Party of Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon or even Ronald Reagan. Although the Republican partisans mouth the slogans of traditional Republicans -- smaller, less intrusive government, less spending, balanced budget, no new programs, leave people alone -- that is not what the present Republicans deliver. In the election just past, voters saw that Republican rule resulted in bigger government, more programs, more spending, record deficits, a mismanaged war, incompetence, corruption, cronyism and a flirtation with theocracy. Voters rebuked the Republican Party by voting for Democrats. They were not Republicans. It was enough. Republicans delude themselves if they think these were just narrow defeats under strained circumstances and they can regain their majority on 2008 by mouthing the traditional Republican litany. The brand is seriously damaged. The Republican Party substituted marketing slogans for substance. But even marketers must deliver on their slogans eventually. The Republicans failed to deliver. The damage to the Republican brand will linger. And it will affect Smith’s reelection chances in 2008. Hotline -- an internet blog sponsored by the prestigious National Journal -- already predicts a tough campaign for Smith and is handicapping challengers. Hotline suggests serious challengers could include former Gov. John Kitzhaber, State Treasurer Randall Edwards, State School Superintendent Susan Castillo, Clatsop County District Attorney Josh Marquis, State Sen. Ben Westlund and Congressmen Peter DeFazio and Earl Blumenauer. Hotline has a seductive, if unrealistic, laundry list. Kitzhaber is working on his labor of love -- health care reform. He has joint custody of his son, Logan, with his former wife in Portland. He is unlikely to go to Washington, D.C. for anything less than a cabinet-level post that involves health care reform if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2008. Edwards and Castillo have been pleasant surprises in the Democrats’ farm club, but they are more likely to be candidates for governor than Smith’s U.S. Senate seat. Josh Marquis is a Democrat? Who knew? Marquis was Oregon’s most-traveled district attorney until he finally found a home in Clatsop County where voters have a soft spot in their hearts for odd ducks. Marquis should not challenge the Peter Principle. DeFazio’s passionate populism makes him a creature of the House. He would be uncomfortable and less effective among the stuffed suits in the Senate. Blumenauer would be a serious challenger, but now that the Democrats are in the majority, his seniority will restore his clout in the House. That leaves Ben Westlund who, I suspect, is about to do that most spectacular of political maneuvers -- a Wayne Morse double reverse with a twist. Morse was elected to the U.S. Senate as a Republican in 1944 and reelected in 1950. He had a falling out with Republicans over foreign policy and McCarthyism and declared himself an Independent in 1952. Morse became a Democrat in 1955 and was reelected in 1956 and 1960, before Bob Packwood, another Republican maverick, defeated him in 1966. Westlund won a State Senate seat from Central Oregon as a Republican. He quietly tried to end his party’s fake “surplus” rebates and their reckless “borrow and spend” policies. He was threatened with a purge from the party when he ran for reelection. Westlund got the message, became an independent and ran for governor instead. When polls showed he could not win, Westlund gracefully retired from the field. Some grateful Democrats are now urging him to join their party and run for Smith’s Senate seat in 2008. Given the voters’ rebuke of the Republican Party and Smith’s orthodox partisan voting record, Smith can no longer hide in Mark Hatfield’s maverick cloak. Smith is no maverick. Ben Westlund is. And Oregonians love their mavericks. Copyright ©2006 by Russell Sadler Russell Sadler is a journalist and a lecturer at Southern Oregon University. You may write him c/o publisher at westbynorthwest.org. Visit Sadler's Sense columns at West By Northwest.org: Sadler's Sense: What Do You Know! Hunger No Longer Exists in USA Sadler's Sense: Saxton No Tom McCall Sadler's Sense: Measure 45, The Way We Never Were Sadler's Sense: A Squandered Legacy? 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