From West by Northwest.org Voices of the Northwest Sadler's Sense: Under the Big Top By Russell Sadler May 4, 2007 Things have settled down to a dull roar in the “marble mausoleum with gold bowling trophy on top,” as Senate President Peter Courtney once jocularly called the State Capitol in Salem. Unlike the Republican leadership of recent years, the new Democratic leadership is not micromanaging their committee chairs to produce the results promised to their campaign contributors. For the most part, the presiding officers trust their committee chairs to produce the best bills they can with the votes they have and send the results to the floor to pass or fail on their merits.  This tends to reduce the controversy involved in the routine of governing, but it also makes for “dull” news coverage of the legislature at a time when the news media live on controversy, even to the point of manufacturing controversy if it doesn’t actually exist. This preoccupation with partisan confrontation masks the serious game played daily by the legislature’s Republican and Democratic leadership. Both side have decided on their strategies for the next election cycle.  The Democrats intend to plod ahead, slowly but steadily, demonstrating that they can pass a two-year budget that takes care of Oregonians’ needs in six months and go home. Democrats are trying, for example, to pass a plan to provide health insurance for all children, add 150 officers to the State Police and increase basic school support for education, community colleges and higher education. The Republicans have decided to deny Democrats the politically palatable, marginal tax increases to finance those programs -- an increase in the cigarette tax to finance childrens’ health insurance and a tax on auto insurance to finance more state police -- and force the Democrats to raise the state income tax to balance the budget. Then Republicans can campaign on the claim that “Democrats raised your taxes!” Oh, the horror of it. Democrats are betting the “anti-tax” fever of the ‘90s has abated. Republicans are betting they can fan the flames of that issue one more time and win the votes that will return them to the majority in one or both houses. How do we know this? The Democratic leadership simply tells its legislative strategy to anyone who asks the right questions.  To determine the Republican strategy, all you have to do is look at the organizations that have taken over the Oregon Republican Party. They are not Oregon organizations at all.  The organizations bankrolling the litter of leaflets, jungle of junk mail and barrage of robocalls in every legislative district where a Democrat narrowly unseated a Republican are “local chapters” of Citizens of a Sound Economy, Taxpayers Association of Oregon and, most recently, The Club for Growth. But these “chapters” are not really local. They are hollow shells of fake “grass roots” organizations financed by their Washington, D.C. headquarters, all determined to restore the manta of “No New Taxes” that had such appeal in the ‘90s. This national effort to resuscitate anti-tax fever is likely to fail here, partly because Oregonians traditionally resent outside interference in their domestic political affairs, and partly because voters now realize that “no new taxes” only applies to income taxes. Oregon Republicans never saw a fee or tuition increase they didn’t like when they were in the majority.  Another reason that anti-tax rhetoric is unlikely to re-root in Oregon is the conservative ideology that dominated politics for the last two decades has apparently run its course. During the years of the Bush administration, “movement conservatism” has been weighed in the balance and found wanting. The growing cadre of cross-over voters, who had remained silent through many elections, showed up in large numbers last November. They relegated self-styled conservatives to the minority at every level of government. Several recent polls suggest a majority of the public is more attuned to the Democrats’ talk of universal health care, more adequately funded education and increased environmental protection than Republican fears of increased taxes. But Oregon Republicans still don’t get it. They are stubbornly staking their future on a strategy that forces the Democrats to decide between programs the public wants and the risk of raising income taxes to pay for them. Unlike the federal government, the Oregon Legislature cannot run a deficit and a dozen years of Republican “borrowing and spending” has tapped out Oregon’s line of credit, so Oregon Democrats must make these difficult fiscal decisions by the end of June when the state’s new budget period begins. Things may appear calm, even dull, under the Capitol dome in mid-April, but the big finale is yet to come. And it won’t be dull when it happens. (Written April 12, 2007) Copyright ©2007 by Russell Sadler Russell Sadler is a journalist and a lecturer at Southern Oregon University when he isn't sailing. You may write him c/o publisher at westbynorthwest.org. Visit Sadler's Sense columns at West By Northwest.org: Sadler's Sense: Pay No Attention to the Man Behind the Curtin Sadler's Sense: Regional Solutions for Global Climate Change Is Key Sadler's Sense:s Oregon Ready for Prime Time Primary? Sadler's Sense: Enter Westlund for Senator? Sadler's Sense: What Do You Know! Hunger No Longer Exists in USA Sadler's Sense: Saxton No Tom McCall Sadler's Sense: Measure 45, The Way We Never Were Sadler's Sense: A Squandered Legacy? Sadler's Sense: A Snapshot of Electorial Politics and Power in Oregon Sadler's Sense: Sea Change Sadler's Sense: Ben Westlund's Bid for Governor and Why He Makes Sense Sadler's Sense: Croesus and Responsibility Sadler's Sense: Can We Kick the "Kicker" Habit? 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